Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles - NAFTA

It is safe to say that battery-powered vehicles are taking over the automobile market. The growth of the Electric Vehicles (EV) market has been significant despite the COVID-19 pandemic and the resulting supply chain bottlenecks. Despite these recent challenges and rising production costs as a result of increasing raw material prices, EV sales are still going up at a fast rate. If this continues, they are set to surpass the sales of conventionally propelled vehicles (i.e., vehicles with internal combustion engines) . Compared to 2020, sales of new electric vehicles more than doubled in 2021 with an increase of 108%. This brought EV sales to about 5% of global passenger car sales in 2021.

China conveniently topped the global sales charts in 2021 with more electric vehicles sold than the rest of the world combined and almost five times more than Germany, which was in second place. Factors responsible for the Chinese market’s exponential growth include, but are not limited to, the Chinese government’s electric vehicle subsidies, an increasing range of mini electric vehicles, and more affordable brands coming onto the market. Overall, Europe recorded an increase between 2020 and 2021, reaching about 66%, with the plug-in hybrid share of all electric vehicle sales being the biggest in the world. Driven by the availability of more models, as well as the market expansion and purchase incentives, the European market is expected to continue along this trend as countries within the EU adopt stricter CO2 emission standards and move toward zero-emissions vehicle mandates.

Regardless of the tremendous growth in the Electric Vehicles market, it is only limited to a part of the world. As the race to full electrification continues, China , Europe, and the U.S. account for about 95% of the global electric vehicle sales, whereas the rest of the world seems to struggle with catching up. In addition to government subsidies just getting introduced or still being nonexistent, the top reasons cited for the slow progress experienced in those parts of the world include the lack of public charging infrastructure and the premium prices of electric vehicles in these regions.

Data coverage:

The data encompasses B2C enterprises. Figures are based on the sales of new passenger cars. Data on the specifications of the sold vehicles is based on the base models of the respective makes.

Modeling approach:

Market sizes are determined through a bottom-up approach, building on specific predefined factors for each market segment. As a basis for evaluating markets, we use company reports and websites, vehicle registries, car dealers, and environment agencies among other sources. In addition, we use relevant key market indicators and data from country-specific associations, such as GDP and car stock per capita. This data helps us estimate the market size for each country individually.

Forecasts:

In our forecasts, we apply diverse forecasting techniques. The selection of forecasting techniques is based on the behavior of the relevant market. For example, we use the ARIMA model for the Passenger Cars market. The main drivers are GDP per capita and consumer spending per capita.

Additional notes:

The data is modeled using current exchange rates. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war are considered at a country-specific level. The market is updated twice a year. In some cases, the data is updated on an ad hoc basis (e.g., when new, relevant data has been released or significant changes within the market have an impact on the projected development).