France: Can Macron Hold Off the Le Pen Presidential Surge?

With France gearing up for its next presidential election on April 10, what are the voting trends in this final stretch of the campaign? While there have been plenty of contemporary examples of polls not being predictions, but rather a snapshot of opinion that inevitably comes with a margin of error, this infographic looks at the ups and downs for the main candidates from mid-March until April 7, using data from the Ipsos-Sopra Steria barometer.

While Emmanuel Macron remained in the lead of voting intentions three days before the election (26.5%), Marine Le Pen is the one who has made the best progress in the polls over the last four weeks, going from 16 percent to 23 percent. According to political analysts, the candidate of the National Rally would benefit, among other things, from the support of Éric Zemmour's voters, who dropped by 5 points to 8.5 percent.

In third place, Jean-Luc Mélenchon is also experiencing positive momentum (+4 points), but remains a step below his rivals for the second round, having stood at 16.5 percent on April 7. Another unknown factor in this first round of the presidential election concerns abstention, which could be particularly high according to the latest surveys (between 26 and 30 percent).