Who Has Been Helped by the Debates?

Former Vice President Joe Biden entered the Democratic primary with approval ratings in the low-40’s, a favorite among voters hungry for an electable candidate to run against President Trump. While Biden has maintained in a historically crowded field, his polling numbers have been falling since his entry into the race. Biden began June with around a roughly 33 percent polling average, dropping three points. Currently, his RealClearPolitics poll average is just shy of the 30 percent mark, continuing to keep a weakened lead.

Senator Warren is one of the few candidates who has been able to consistently build up support in the poll. Between mid-June and mid-September, Warren has gained 9.5 points in her polling average. Part of Senator Warren’s consistent gains could be attributed to her positive performance across all three debates so far. Senator Sanders, the only other candidate outside of Biden and Warren who has enjoyed double-digit support, has seen his polling average barely budge over the past three months.

Some of the lower tier candidates have been able to experience bumps in their poll numbers by having breakout moments. Senator Harris was able to double her poll numbers after the June debate when attacking Biden on his record. Those gains have mostly faded. There is one more Democratic primary debate left next month, the last impression many potential Democratic voters will have before the primary voting and caucuses begin in February.