Are Smartphones the New Wallets?

eMarketer expects the transaction volume of mobile payments in the United States to reach $640 million this year and predicts a 100-fold increase until 2016. But are we really ready to ditch our wallets in favour of our smartphones?

When Apple released the iPhone 5 last month, some people were disappointed that Apple chose not to include a Near Field Communication chip for mobile payments. Others interpreted Apple’s omission of an NFC chip as proof that the time has yet to come for the technology to become relevant to the mass market. After all, Apple has a history of dismissing technologies until they have proven their viability. eMarketer expects 8 million Americans to make a point-of-sale purchase with their smartphone this year. That’s roughly seven percent of U.S. smartphone users and clearly shows that mobile payments are still in the early stages of adoption. If eMarketer is right, almost 50 million Americans will be using their phones to make in-store purchases by 2016. So the iPhone 7 will probably have NFC…

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This chart shows a forecast of proximity mobile payment transaction volume in the United States.

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Number of proximity mobile payment users in the United States in 2019 and 2020, with forecasts from 2020 to 2025 (in millions)
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Proximity mobile payment transaction value in the United States in 2024, with forecasts from 2025 to 2028 (in billion U.S. dollars)
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Share of smartphone users who use proximity mobile payments in the United States in 2020, with forecasts from 2021 to 2025
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Estimates on the number of users of contactless/tap to pay mobile payments in the United States in 2022, with a forecast for 2027 (in billions)
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Market size of mobile wallet transactions in various regions worldwide in 2020 with forecasts from 2021 to 2025 (in billion U.S. dollars)
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Barriers to digital wallet adoption according to smartphone users in the United States as of May 2019

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