Democrats Ahead of Republicans in Midterms Voting Intentions

With two months left to go until the midterm elections, the U.S. remains a deeply divided country. Approval ratings of the presidency and of Congress (all in the hands of Republicans) are at or near all-time lows amid high inflation and the unpopular trade and actual wars of the current administration. President Donald Trump in recent interviews has repeatedly blamed Congressional Republicans for the expected midterm lull, saying they were more unpopular than him (which is not correct).

Despite the low popularity of Trump as well as of Congress, the fate of the midterms is typically governed by bigger forces. Swing voters, which switch between parties, have historically abandoned the ruling party in the midterms, favoring the party not currently in power. Midterm polling in the lead up to November shows as much.

According to data aggregated and weighted by Silver Bulletin, Democrats currently lead voting intentions for the midterms by almost 7 percentage points, with 48 percent of those surveyed saying they would vote for a Democratic candidate if the election took place today.

In line with typical patterns, the voting intentions lead flipped from Republicans to Democrats just a few months after Donald Trump's second inauguration in January of 2025. Democrats have also been able to widen their lead – from fewer than 3 percentage points one year ago to 6.6 percentage points most recently.