What Risks Will the World Face in the Short and Long Term?

In the immediate future, the global risk landscape will be dominated by geoeconomic confrontation, misinformation and societal polarization. But over the next ten years, climate change and its consequences will pose the greatest risk to the world. That’s according to more than 900 global experts from academia, business and politics, who were asked to evaluate 33 global risks over a two-year and ten-year horizon for the World Economic Forum’s annual Global Risks Report.

In 2026, the report ranks geoeconomic confrontation as the top short-term risk, reflecting a world increasingly shaped by geopolitical rivalry and economic/military tensions. Misinformation and disinformation, fueled by the proliferation of deep-fakes and digital manipulation, remain acute threats, capable of undermining democratic institutions and exacerbating political divides. Societal polarization, driven by widening inequalities and the erosion of social contracts, rounds out the top three of short-term concerns.

Looking at the ten-year horizon, misinformation is expected to remain a significant threat. However, the three most severe risks facing the world are all predicted to be related to climate change. Extreme weather events appear at the top of the list (compared to a fourth place short-term), followed by biodiversity loss, ecosystem collapse and critical changes to Earth systems. In total, among the ten major global risks assessed by experts, the number of environmental risks increases from two in the immediate future to five in the long term.

The following infographic illustrates the difference between what experts consider short-term risks and challenges that will shape the world for years to come, or even decades. In conclusion, the 21st edition of the WEF’s Global Risks Report finds “there has been a reprioritization of global risks by respondents in the short term towards geoeconomic and societal shocks”, as “the turmoil caused by kinetic wars alongside deployment of economic weapons for strategic advantage is continuing to fragment societies”.