Geopolitical Risk Rises Globally

According to a newly released report by Aon, geopolitical volatility - together with AI-related issues - was the fastest-growing business risk in the world. Geopolitical risk rose from rank 21 in 2023 to rank 9 in 2025 and, according to business leaders, is expected to climb further to rank 5 by 2028. AI-related risks meanwhile were ranked 49th by the experts surveyed in 2023, before rising to rank 29 in 2025. They are projected to come in eighth in 2028.

Broken down by continents, Asia is to experience the biggest increase in geopolitical risk, with the indicator expected to rise from rank 11 to rank 4, above the global average, by 2028. In Europe, geopolitical volatility is already hugely elevated in rank 6 of all business risk. This is still projected to further increase until 2028, according to experts, when geopolitical volatility is believed to become the third-biggest risk in Europe. North America is expected to come in only slightly below the global average, while the situation is more relaxed in Latin America.

Overall, the biggest business risk in 2028 (as well as 2025) will continue to be cyber attacks and data breaches. Other than between 2023 and 2025, 2028 will see more of a change in the top 3, with increasing competition moving up and replacing business interruption.