The Disappearing Republican House Majority

Rep. Victoria Spartz (IN-05) dropped a bombshell in mid-November that will soon become extremely relevant once president-elect Donald Trump takes office on January 20. The Indiana Congresswoman said then that she would not be caucusing with Republicans in House votes and instead vote her own mind on issues, abstain or potentially be absent. Considering the party's slim majority in the chamber and the likely absence of three Representatives that are currently awaiting Senate confirmation for Cabinet positions, Spartz's could well be the deciding vote until special elections fill the to-be-vacant seats of cabinet appointees as well as that of former Rep. Matt Gaetz, who resigned from Congress and stood down as the treasury secretary pick.

According to election results, Democrats hold 215 seats in the House, while Republicans started out with 220. Subtracting three cabinet-level picks as well as Gaetz and Spartz, Democrats and Republicans hold an equal number of seats and due to the lack of a tiebreaker in the House, this means that Republicans are without a majority in this scenario. If one or more of Trump's picks would not be confirmed, the need for Spartz's vote could not exist anymore. The three Reps in question are Lori Chavez-DeRemer (OR-05), Mike Waltz (FL-06) and Elise Stefanik (NY-21). They are not among Trump's most controversial picks, but most Cabinet appointees are dependent on Republican unity in the Senate for confirmation, which might not be a given.

Spartz doubled down on her threat with a post on her website on December 30 including a low-resolution Titanic-themed graphic, reiterating her opinion that Congress has abandoned its duty to oversee spending. Spartz had cited this as a reason she would abandon the Republican caucus, not sit on committees and, as she wrote on social media, "rather spend more of my time helping @DOGE" (the to-be-created Department of Government Efficiency to be led by Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy).