Politics

Who Will Be the Next UK PM?

So here we are again. Less than seven weeks after a Conservative leadership election lasting longer than the chosen PM's time in power came to an end, another anxious wait to find out who will be taking the reigns of the country is forced upon the UK. This time the process promises to be a far swifter affair, however, with a new leader expected to be announced by the end of next week.

Things can move fast in politics - a fact taken especially seriously in Westminster recently. So while a candidate's chances to become Conservative party leader can rise and fall in the blink of an eye, this initial look at probability, based on bookmakers odds, provides an idea of who is in the running to become the next by-default prime minister.

At the top for now is Rishi Sunak. The ex-chancellor that lost out to Truss in the last leadership race currently has an assessed 60 percent chance of making it second time lucky. Met with dismay in some quarters, including within the Tory party, Boris Johnson has emerged as a strong contender, too. A second stint in Number 10 has a probability of around 30 percent right now, making him the second favorite.

Description

implied probability based on bookmaker odds for the next permanent leader of the Conservative Party

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Percentage of votes won in the Conservative party leadership elections in the United Kingdom in 2022, by round
Net favorability for leaders of major political parties in the United Kingdom from August 2024 to September 2026
"Which of the following do you think would make the best Prime Minister?" (July 2026)
Which, if any, of the following people do you think would be the best prime minister?
Number of seats won in the general election in the United Kingdom in 2019
Public opinion on who has the best chance of becoming prime minister in Portugal from December 2023 to February 2024

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