Minimum Wage

A $15 Minimum Wage Could Result In A Million Job Losses

Ahead of a potential House vote on doubling the federal minimum wage, a Congressional Budget Office analysis has examined the possible ramifications of such a move. The minimum wage is currently $7.25 and it has remained that way for more than ten years, its longest stagnation ever. That prompted House Democrats to introduce the Raise the Wage Act in January which would see the hourly minimum wage rise to $15 by 2025.

While the analysis predicts several positive effects from a $15 minimum wage such as higher wages for 17 million workers and 1.3 million fewer people living below the poverty threshold, it could lead to job losses. The precise impact on employment remains uncertain and there is a chance that no jobs will be lost as well as a chance 3.7 million jobs could be lost by 2025. That has resulted in a median estimate of 1.3 million job losses. In the case of increasing the minimum wage to $12, median job losses could total 300,000 by 2025.

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This chart shows the estimated impact of an increase in the U.S. federal minimum wage by 2025.

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Federal minimum wage in real and nominal terms in the United States from 1950 to 2025 (in inflation-adjusted U.S. dollars per hour)
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Do you think raising the minimum wage would reduce the number of jobs, increase the number of jobs, or have no impact on the number of jobs?
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Number of wage and salary workers paid hourly rates at the prevailing federal minimum wage in the United States from 1979 to 2025 (in 1,000s)
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Value of the minimum wage if it grew with productivity in the United States from 1968 to 2021 (in 2021 U.S. dollars)
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National hourly minimum wage in Australia from 2014 to 2025 (in Australian dollars)
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Share of adults who support raising the federal minimum wage in the United States in 2024, by amount increased

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