New Report

Brexit could cost the UK £100bn a year by 2030

Theresa May got the first green light for her Brexit agreement at the weekend when the remaining 27 EU countries voted to endorse its terms. Afterwards, European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker said that it is "the best deal possible for Britain". According to new analysis by the National Institute for Economic and Social Research though, the 'best' deal is far from a good one for the UK.

Assuming the UK leaves the EU Customs Union and Single Market in 2021 under the now approved agreement, by 2030, the country's economy is forecast to be £100bn per year worse off. This would be chiefly due to the predicted 3.9 percent fall in GDP, a drastic reduction in trade with the remaining EU states of 46 percent, a drop of 21 percent in foreign direct investment and a potential loss of 2 percent in tax revenue.

Description

This chart shows the predicted effect on the UK economy by 2030 if it leaves the EU in 2021.

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Forecasted long-term effects of Brexit on real GDP in the United Kingdom (UK) in 2030, by scenario
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Forecasted change in GDP for selected European countries in 2030 as a result of the UK leaving the EU, by scenario*
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Forecasted long-term effects of the Brexit on GBP per household in the United Kingdom (UK) in 2030, by scenario
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Forecasted effects of Brexit on real gross domestic product in the United Kingdom from 2016 to 2035
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Losses in the real GDP value of the United Kingdom due to Brexit between 2016 and 2020 (in billions of pounds)
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Estimated impact of UK-EU trade under Hard Brexit scenarios on gross domestic product (GDP) in the United Kingdom (UK) as of 2021

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