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IMF Downgrades US and UK Growth Forecasts

In the World Economic Outlook Update released today, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has downgraded its U.S. and U.K. growth projections. The report cites "difficult-to-predict U.S. regulatory and fiscal policies" and the continued uncertainty surrounding the Brexit negotiations as key factors. The global economy is nevertheless expected to hold course over the next two years.

With a downward revision of 0.2 percent in 2017 and a further 0.4 percent in 2018, the U.S. is expected to post 2.1 percent in each period. Commenting further on its projection, the IMF stated that they now assume U.S. fiscal policy to be "less expansionary going forward than previously anticipated".

Countering the pessimism surrounding the U.S. and U.K. economies, and helping to keep the global projection on track, are strong performances in Eurozone countries such as Germany, France, Italy and Spain - all of which have seen their forecasts revised upwards. Underlining this generally more positive sentiment, the IMF said that "the recovery in global growth that we projected in April is on a firmer footing; there is now no question mark over the world economy’s gain in momentum."

Description

This chart shows the year-on-year output growth estimates and projections of the U.S., U.K. and world as of July 2017.

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Annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth projections for the U.S., U.K., Germany and the Euro Area from 2010 to 2025
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Annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth projections for selected countries in the Americas and the United Kingdom and Germany from 2010 to 2026, with a forecast until 2031
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Forecasted annual growth of gross domestic product in the United Kingdom from 2019 to 2030
Forecast index level change to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the United Kingdom (UK) from 2017-2023
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Forecasted percentage change on a year earlier of gross domestic output gap in the United Kingdom (UK) from 2017 to 2023
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Growth forecast for gross domestic product (GDP) in the United Kingdom from 1st quarter 2020 to 4th quarter 2021

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